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Digitalization and decarbonization are likely to increase the competitiveness of German companies and contribute to achieving climate protection targets. However, they are also causing serious changes in the German labor market: while employment is being reduced in many areas and certain professions are disappearing, employment is being increased in others and new professions and skills are in demand. The Expert Commission on Research and Innovation (EFI) is examining how well equipped Germany is for this kind of transformative structural change in its annual report 2025, which it presented to the Federal Government today. Prof. Dr. Guido Bünstorf from the University of Kassel is a member of the EFI.
From left to right: Friederike Welter, Christoph M. Schmidt, Carolin Häussler, Uwe Cantner, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Irene Bertschek, Guido Bünstorf.
The EFI's core message is that digitalization and decarbonization must be driven forward; policymakers are called upon to create better conditions to ensure that sustainable new jobs are created in the course of structurally changing innovations.
Innovations help to leverage the potential of digitalization and decarbonization. Patent analyses conducted by the EFI paint a mixed picture of technology development in these two areas in Germany. "We are lagging behind other countries when it comes to patent applications in the fields of technology that are central to digitalization," says Prof. Christoph M. Schmidt, President of the RWI - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research and a member of the EFI since last year. The situation is better when it comes to patents relevant to decarbonization. "When it comes to new ideas for decarbonization, Germany is in the top group of the countries surveyed," explains Schmidt.
High proportion of automatable and environmentally harmful jobs
The EFI expects digitalization and decarbonization to have a significant impact on the labour market. In 2022, more than one in three employees worked in a job that could be replaced by computers or computer-aided machines. One in six had a job that is classified as environmentally harmful and is therefore also at risk from structural change. Particularly critical: many jobs are simultaneously affected by digitalization and decarbonization, especially in parts of the manufacturing sector.
Enabling innovation and job mobility
"Politicians should actively support the structural change associated with digitalization and decarbonization," advises EFI Chairman Prof. Uwe Cantner from the University of Jena. "Instead of preserving existing structures, politicians should enable the development and implementation of innovative digital and climate-friendly innovations and thus drive structural change." More must be done to promote digitalization and, above all, the digital infrastructure and opportunities to use data must be expanded. As a central policy instrument to support decarbonization, the EFI calls for the efficiency of climate protection to be increased through an effective and uniformCO2 price across all sectors. In addition, the conditions for employee mobility should be improved in order to cushion the effects of transformative structural change on the labor market. "If employees are mobile across industries and sectors, they are more likely to switch to occupations that are less easily automated or less harmful to the environment," says Commission member Prof. Guido Bünstorf from the University of Kassel. The possibility of switching to an employer from another sector should also be taken into account when promoting further vocational training.