PB C: Modeling and upscaling
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Project area C deals with the simulation of central environmental effects of the field trials considered in the project using plant growth and hydrological models. For example, changes in nutrient flows, soil carbon content, soil water balance and yields are simulated using a coupling of the process-based model DSSAT(Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) and the hydrological model CMF(Catchment Modeling Framework). The aim is to use the model-based simulations to better understand the small-scale test results and to transfer them to larger spatial scales. The results calculated for Hesse are to be analyzed for future climatic conditions (e.g. up to 2050 or 2070). SP C1sets up the plant growth model DSSAT for wheat, caraway and coriander in pure and mixed crops and develops routines for the interactions of annual wheat-caraway and wheat-coriander mixed crops, as well as for perennial crops using the example of wheat and caraway. SP C2optimizes the model with regard to soil water balancing by coupling an improved soil water balance model (CMF) with the DSSAT. This enables a more precise quantification of nutrient and water competition of pure and mixed crops, as well as an improved estimation of drought stress dynamics of the crops, an important new scientific development especially with regard to simulations of future climate change impacts. The new model routines will be calibrated and validated using the extensive results of the field experiments and practical plots from PB A(SP C1 and SP C2). SP C3uses the optimized model to quantify the small-scale crop-soil-environment impacts (from the field trials) for potential sites throughout Hesse. Regional natural and climatic differences are considered and climate change effects on nutrient flows, soil carbon content, soil water balance and yields in Hesse are investigated. In this way, statements can be made throughout Hesse about the suitability of the crops studied under future climatic conditions.