Wuppertal/Kassel, December 16, 2024: Germany is in the midst of a transition to a climate-neutral economy. However, while great success has already been achieved in the energy sector in recent years, the transformation of the industrial sector is still comparatively in its infancy - and is currently taking place in a challenging environment: Infrastructures need to be rebuilt and developed quickly, the required public investment is uncertain given the tense budget situation and geopolitical tensions as well as announcements from the US to introduce tariffs, or to significantly increase them, could contribute to further restrictions on global trade in the future.

A roadmap for a climate-positive transformation of German industry

The now published in-depth scenario paths of the Agora study "Climate-neutral Germany - from target setting to implementation" outlines ways in which German industry can achieve the climate protection target for 2030 and at the same time set course for climate-positive production by 2045. "Planning security is essential for the success of an industrial transformation and thus a resilient vision of the future that provides orientation with regard to the necessary change - and a clear model for investments and political framework conditions," says Dr. Georg Holtz, Senior Researcher in the Sectors and Technologies research area at the Wuppertal Institute, who contributed to the study.

In their study scenario, the researchers consider not only the production processes in the basic materials industry, but also the entire value chains and material flows as well as the possibilities of closing material cycles, which contributes to both climate protection and security of supply. "We were able to determine the potential for the future use of recycled materials more robustly than in previous studies through detailed modeling of production chains and thus demonstrate their central contribution to climate protection and competitiveness," adds Dr. Clemens Schneider, research associate in the Sustainable Technology Design department and at the Kassel Institute for Sustainability at the University of Kassel, who also contributed to the study.

The key findings from the industrial scenario include

• The provision of process heat can and should be largely electrified, particularly through the use of heat pumps for low temperature ranges. Although this would double industry's electricity consumption, natural gas consumption could be reduced to almost zero by 2040.
• Biomass should primarily be used as a material - or, to ensure negative emissions, in combination with carbon capture and storage (CCS). For the chemical industry, biomass as a carbon carrier offers an alternative to fossil raw materials.
• Plastic waste and by-products from chemical parks can be increasingly recycled and thus also replace fossil raw materials in the chemical industry.
• The phase-out of traditional blast furnace technology in the steel industry could be achieved by 2035 by switching to direct reduction plants.
• According to the results of the study, the use of CO2-intensive cement clinker can be reduced by more than 40 percent in the long term.
• CCS makes a necessary contribution to climate neutrality and should primarily be used in conjunction with technically unavoidable CO2 streams in the cement and lime industries and in waste management. CCS can also contribute to rapid CO2 reduction in the medium term for individual point sources in the steel and chemical industries - and in the long term, in combination with biomass, to secure negative emissions. However, too strong a focus on fossil CCS in these industries harbors risks for lock-in effects and competitiveness.

The Agora think tanks will use the study as a basis for further research and for discussing political strategies and measures. It can make an important contribution to guiding the ongoing strategy processes at federal level: on the circular economy, the sustainable use of biomass, carbon management, negative emissions - and not least for the competitive and supply-secure positioning of German industry.

Further information:

Study: Climate-neutral Germany
https://www.agora-energiewende.de/publikationen/klimaneutrales-deutschland-szenariopfade

Project: KNDE Update 2024
https://wupperinst.org/p/wi/p/s/pd/2384

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Joint press release

Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy gGmbH

VisdP: Prof. Dr.-Ing. Manfred Fischedick, President and Scientific Director
Contact: Luisa Lucas, Deputy Press Officer
Tel: +49 202 2492-292
E-mail: luisa.lucas[at]wupperinst[dot]org

Scientific Contact persons:

Dr. Georg Holtz
E-Mail: georg.holtz[at]wupperinst[dot]org
Tel: +49 202 2492-313

University of Kassel

Press contact: Sebastian Mense, Communication and Marketing
Tel: +49 561 804-1961
E-Mail: presse@uni-kassel.de

Scientific Contact persons:

Dr. Clemens Schneider
Tel: +49 561 804-7090
E-Mail: clemens.schneider[at]uni-kassel[dot]de

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Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy gGmbH

The Wuppertal Institute is an implementation-oriented research institute for sustainability and transformation research. The core mission of the Wuppertal Institute, founded in 1991, is to contribute to achieving the global sustainability goals on the basis of scientific findings. A particular focus is on transformation pathways towards a climate-friendly and resource-conserving future. To this end, the scientists develop system, target and transformation knowledge and research practical models and strategies for politics, business and society - at local level, in Germany, in Europe and around the world.

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University of Kassel: The university of ideas in the heart of Germany
With around 22,000 students, the University of Kassel is one of Germany's medium-sized universities. More than 300 professorships are organized in eleven Faculties - the growing university is currently establishing numerous additional professorships, not least for the Kassel Institute for Sustainability. In this new scientific center, students and researchers are working on the sustainability goals of the United Nations and are thus also shaping the profile of the university. Numerous new degree courses will be created in this area of sustainable transformations in the coming years. Materials of the future are another focus of research and teaching. Around a fifth of all enrolled students are studying to become teachers.
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